Service Plays Thursday 10/21/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oregon-UCLA Statistical Breakdown

UCLA Bruins At Oregon Ducks (-24.5, 61.5)
Here’s our breakdown of Oregon-UCLA on both sides of the ball:

OFFENSE

Oregon’s offense is the class of college football. The Ducks lead the country in yards per game (567), points per game (54.3) and are sixth in yards per play (7.1).

Chip Kelly’s crew hasn’t played a schedule like Alabama’s but it still put up 52 points against Stanford and 48 at Tennessee.

The Bruins’ attacking unit just doesn’t possess the same type of firepower. They punt 1.6 times for every offensive score (compared to Oregon’s 0.6) and they convert just 33 percent of their third downs.

UCLA relies too heavily on its ground game, and averages less than 100 yards through the air on game days. Only Georgia Tech and Army gain fewer passing yards than the Bruins.

Edge: Oregon Ducks

DEFENSE

This is an area the Ducks have shown some vulnerability. Remember how easily Stanford scored on Oregon in the first half of their showdown a few weeks back? Coach Kelly elected to try an onside kick in the second quarter rather than send his defense out against Andrew Luck again.

Oregon is allowing 483.7 yards over its last three games. That’s a big chunk of change. Astute bettors know the Ducks’ opponents get more possessions and often have to throw at a higher rate because of Oregon’s quick-strike offense.

Well, Boise State’s offense is pretty good too. And the BSU defense doesn’t get gashed like this Pac-10 team.

Still, you can’t discount the ability to create turnovers. Oregon leads the nation in defensive take-aways at 3.4 and that number swells to 4.0 at home.

UCLA’s stopper unit is average in just about every statistical category. The Bruins held the Long Horns to just 349 yards in that Week 4 shocker but they let Washington State rack up almost 400 yards the very next week.

As unremarkable as Oregon’s defense is, it’s hard not to give the Ducks the edge here too. The Bruins allow an average of 4.5 yards per carry, a number that’s sure to grow after facing LaMichael James.

Edge: Oregon Ducks

SPECIAL TEAMS

We really didn’t want to go with a clean sweep but it’s hard not too when you look at the numbers. Oregon doesn’t punt or kick field goals often. Phil Knight’s green guys prefer to punch it in for six.

But Oregon averages 20.3 yards per punt return, which is double UCLA’s average.

And the Bruins’ return game won’t have its top playmaker suited up for Thursday’s game. Wide receiver/returner Josh Smith is suspended for a violation of team rules.

Edge: Oregon Ducks

From the files of the beat reporters:

"We hear all the excuses about everyone being inexperienced, or the offense did that and the defense did this. Forget all that. We play one good series, then two bad ones. That's the reason we're not winning."

-UCLA free safety Rahim Moore venting his frustrations about the Bruins’ up-and-down season to the Los Angeles Times.

"They are 100-percent sold on running that offense. So, you're going to see a lot more tight ends, a lot more motions, a lot more blocking the back side edge."

-Oregon coach Chip Kelly explaining to Oregon Live about UCLA's commitment to the pistol offense.

Final score prediction: Oregon 48, UCLA 17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Best NCAA Bet

UCLA Bruins At Oregon Ducks (-24.5, 61.5)

Date/Time: Thursday, October 21, 3:30 PM EST
Venue: Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR.
Broadcast: ESPN
UCLA Bruins vs. Oregon Ducks
Money Line:
Spread: Oregon -24
Over/Under: 61

Oregon is the nation’s top-ranked team for the first time in program history, and is ranked No. 1 in both the AP poll and the coaches’ poll. The coaches’ poll counts in the BCS standings and as of Monday, October 18, the Ducks is ranked No. 2, sandwiched between No. 1 Oklahoma and No. 3 Boise State.

Now the Ducks will play host to a UCLA team that owns a 39-24 edge in the series but has been wildly inconsistent in 2010, being shutout 35-0 by Stanford, and then beating then-No. 7 Texas in a 34-12 shocker in Austin

What followed was an embarrassing 35-7 loss to Cal, where the Bruins gained only 114 yards while falling to 1-2 in the Pac-10. The Bruins completed only 15 of 37 passes, and their ground game, which had been its strength, netted an anemic 26 yards.

Yards have come rather easily for the Ducks that have won six straight and lead the PAC-10 with a perfect 3-0 record. They also lead the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision in yards (567 per game) and scoring (54.3 points).

The Ducks’ are coming off a rather pedestrian 43-23 win over Washington State in Week 7—considering how bad the Cougars are — but they still gained 556 yards, even after quarterback Darron Thomas had to leave the field in the second quarter with a right shoulder injury. It was reported afterward that he was held out for precautionary reasons and will resume his starting role for Thursday’s game.

Unlike Thomas, the status of Kenjon Barner remained unclear. A backup running back and key return man for the Ducks, Barner suffered a nasty concussion against Washington State.

While Oregon looks to be nearly full strength, UCLA will be without Morrell Presley and Josh Smith who have both been suspended for violating team rules. Presley starts at what’s known end position known as “F” back, while Smith is a wide receiver and UCLA’s leading kickoff returner. UCLA vs. Oregon Gambling & Week 8 Prediction

That definitely won’t help a banged-up Kevin Prince who is already struggling to find eligible receivers after completing only 44.7 percent of his passes for 384 yards and three TDs, with five interceptions. Back up QB Richard Brehaut hasn’t fared much better connecting on just 50 percent of his passes for 189 yards, with no TDs and one pick. The passing attack is horrible and ranks 118th of 120 teams in the FBS, and to make things worse, the Bruins have given up 17 sacks.

Once again, UCLA will lean on its running game that is averaging 223 yards per game. Backs Johnathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman have combined for 9 TDs and over 1,000 yards, and if the Bruins’ pistol attack doesn’t misfire, they both could have a big day.

If you remember, both Stanford and Arizona State managed more than 500 yards versus Oregon.

No matter how you look at this game, it’s all going to come down to how well the UCLA defense can contain the Ducks’ shock and awe spread-option attack, that is rolling up 315 rushing yards per game behind RB LaMichael James, who has already rushed for 848 yards and nine touchdowns.

The passing game’s potent as well as Thomas has produced 1,231 yards and 14 TDs, with five interceptions.

The Bruins defense led by linebacker Akeem Ayers who has posted 36 tackles, has been very impressive at times, and has 12 forced turnovers and 18 sacks. Turnovers can be a problem for the Ducks, who have coughed up the rock 13 times.

ULCA owns the all-time record with Oregon, but has dropped the last two contests played, including a 24-10 decision a season ago at the Rose Bowl. UCLA’s last win in the series was a 16-0 victory over the No. 9 Ducks at the Rose Bowl in 2007. The Bruins’ last win at Autzen Stadium came in a 34-26 victory back in 200, and probably won’t again if they cannot mount a sustained offensive attack while stacking the box in an effort to contain James.

Pick: Oregon Ducks

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UCLA At Oregon: What Bettors Need To Know

UCLA Bruins At Oregon Ducks (-24.5, 61.5)

Oregon puts its new No. 1 ranking on the line Thursday against UCLA in a place it rarely loses – Autzen Stadium.

The Ducks (6-0, 3-0) have won 10 straight in Eugene and seven of nine overall against the Bruins (3-3, 1-2 Pac-10), who arrive with a major injury concern with their starting quarterback.

It seemed doubtful Bruin sophomore Kevin Prince (knee) would be able to play on Wednesday, meaning sophomore Richard Brehaut would make his second career start in one of the toughest environments in college football. In his only other start, Brehaut completed 12 of 23 passes for 128 yards in the Bruins’ 42-28 win over Washington State on Oct. 2

Oregon saw its starting quarterback Darron Thomas leave in its last game against Washington State with a shoulder injury. But Thomas reportedly showed no signs of the shoulder giving him problems at practice this week and is expected to start.

Unlike the Bruins, the Ducks do have a seasoned backup in senior Nate Costa. He played well after taking over for Thomas against Washington State, completing 13 of 15 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown.

Also unlike the Bruins, Oregon’s quarterback will be surrounded by a bevy of offensive weapons, most notably running back LaMichael James. The Ducks lead the nation in total offense and are third in rushing offense, with James averaging 167 yards per game. UCLA’s rush defense is ranked 92nd in the nation and is surrendering an average of 182 yards on the ground.

Clearly, Oregon is the much more explosive of the two teams; hence, the 24.5 point spread.

UCLA has shown the ability to raise its game to a high level, though. The Bruins convincing win at Texas is proof. But the Bruins also are inconsistent, as their 35-7 loss at Cal two weeks ago proves.

Both teams are coming off a bye. Oregon is at USC next week.

THE LINE

The line has seen a lot of movement since it opened at Oregon -21.5 on Sunday.

Early money dropped the number to -20.5, but the Prince injury situation appears to have made the Ducks a more popular bet. The Ducks were laying as much as 24.5 as of Wednesday.

The Bruins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater and are 23-10 ATS after a straight-up loss.

The Ducks are 20-8 in their last 28 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or greater.

THE TOTAL

The total opened at 60.5 and was up to 61.5 at most outlets on Wednesday.

A 60 percent chance of rain is forecast for Thursday night in Eugene.

Oregon is averaging 54.33 points per game and allowing 16.33 points per game. UCLA is averaging 22.67 points per game and allowing 25.67.

The Ducks beat the Bruins 24-10 last season in Los Angeles. In their last four meetings, the teams have combined to score an average of 38.75 points.

The under is 7-1 in Bruins last eight games following a bye week. The under is 21-5-1 in UCLA’s last 27 conference games.

The over is 8-1 Oregon’s last nine conference games.

INJURY REPORT

Neither team is healthy.

Three starters from the Oregon defense—corner Anthony Gildon, end Terrell Turner and Zac Clark--are listed as doubtful. Running back and kick returner Kenjon Barner, who was carted off the field during the Oct. 9 Washington State game, isn’t expected to play either.

UCLA is waiting news of a reported second MRI on Prince’s knee. Chances seem to diminishing that Prince will be able to play. Chris Foster of The Los Angeles Times tweeted Wednesday that “if the decision is put into the hands of the UCLA medical staff, [Prince] will not play.”

The Bruins also suspended top return man Josh Smith and tight end Morrell Presley for violating team rules.

BATTLE IN THE TRENCHES

UCLA has recorded 18 sacks this season, second most behind Oregon in the Pac-10. But Oregon, with its quick-hitting offensive scheme, has allowed only two sacks all season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Best MLB Mound Match-up

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44)

Halladay is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his two postseason outings, including his no-hit shutout of the Reds in Game 1 of the NLDS. However in his most recent outing he was much less dominant, getting tagged for four runs on eight hits over seven innings, including giving up a pair of home runs to Cody Ross.

"His command wasn't as sharp as it has been," Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee said. "Unfortunately, he keeps raising the bar. People think you're supposed to do that every time. It's tough to pitch a no-hitter every night."

But far be it from Halladay to fear the Giants lineup. In the regular season, the right-hander finished first in the National League in innings pitched (250.2), second in WHIP (1.04) and strikeouts (219) and third in ERA.

The Giants, however, haven’t been intimidated either. In two starts against Halladay this season, the orange and black has recorded two wins, scoring nine runs over 14 innings, smacking three home runs and hitting a surprising .429. Maybe Halladay should start to fear the Giants.

"At this point you make enough mistakes they end up costing you," Halladay said. "You find out what you're made of. You never expect it to be easy. You battle back and grind it out and make adjustments. If you can't handle failure at this point, you're in the wrong business."

Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43)

Lincecum wasn’t dominant against the Phillies in his Game 1 victory last weekend. But he sure didn’t need much help.

The former Cy Young winner improved to 2-0 this postseason, going seven innings and giving up just three earned runs on six hits. Lincecum did allow a pair of home runs, but otherwise kept a powerful Phillies offense in check much of the evening.

In fact, Giants manager Bruce Bochy actually worried about his ace getting too excited at one point. With runners on the corners and slugger Ryan Howard at the dish, Bochy went to the mound to have a few words with his hurler, who struck out the free-swinging first baseman moments later.

"I just wanted to calm him down," Bochy said. "He's really hyped up a little bit. He was in a jam, wanted to make sure he kept his poise ad he made some good pitches to Howard."

And he will have to make more if the Giants are to take Game 5.

In two starts against the Phillies this year, he has given up three home runs, but only five earned runs over 15.1 innings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bet

Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants (+114)

As much as the matchup between Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum was hyped heading into this series, so was the war between the Phillies and Giants bullpens.

But while The Doc vs. The Freak has been entertaining, the battle of the bullpens is the biggest disappointment of the NLCS, besides Philadelphia’s hitting.

San Francisco’s bullpen, which ranked second in ERA in the National League during the regular season (2.99 ERA), is lugging a 4.19 postseason ERA into Thursday’s Game 5 after giving up two runs to the Phillies Wednesday.

Philadelphia’s relievers have been sharper overall, but also cracked under the pressure in Game 4, allowing San Francisco to rally in the sixth. The bullpen gave up three runs including the game-winning sacrifice fly off starter-turned-reliever Roy Oswalt in the bottom of the ninth.

"The ninth inning is never easy," closer Brad Lidge told MLB.com of Oswalt’s late-inning efforts. "Throwing out of the bullpen is never easy. We appreciate that he did it. In a game like that when you're using a lot of relievers, it's nice to have him volunteer to do that."

Baseball fans could be counting on these cracking bullpens late in Thursday’s action. If Halladay and Lincecum don’t go deep into their starts, things could get ugly in Game 5.

Pick: Over

 

[SteveRogers]

power plys newsletter score: Oregon 43 UCLA 15

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stat/systems report 10/21

STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 10/21
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH -- CFB *****
============================================

Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.

*** UCLA's AWFUL PASSING ATTACK TO BE TESTED ***
==========================================
Oregon is the nation’s No. 1 team for the first time in its history, but is just shy of the top spot in the BCS. The top-ranked Ducks will try to do their part to move up in the BCS standings with another convincing performance Thursday night when UCLA visits Autzen Stadium. After Ohio State’s lost at Wisconsin last week, Oregon took over the No. 1 spot in the AP poll without hitting the field. The Ducks are second in the BCS rankings behind Oklahoma. To keep their potential spot in the BCS title game, the Ducks will likely need to maintain their perfect record over their next six games, a stretch that begins against another well-rested team in the Bruins.

The bye came at an opportune time for Oregon. Quarterback Darron Thomas is expected to be fully healed from an awkward fall on his throwing shoulder in the Ducks’ last game, a 43-23 win at Washington State on Oct. 9. Led by Thomas and sophomore running back LaMichael James Oregon leads the nation with 54.3 points and 567 yards per game. James, who leads the FBS in rushing yards per game, had 152 yards on 20 carries in last season’s 24-10 victory at UCLA. Bruins sophomore Johnathan Franklin, currently second in the conference with a 113.2-yard rushing average, was limited to 32 yards on nine carries in that game. The victory was Oregon’s seventh in the last nine meetings against UCLA, which still leads the all-time series 39-24.

Like Oregon, UCLA hasn’t played since Oct. 9. The Bruins entered their bye week following a 35-7 loss at California to snap a three-game win streak. Two of those victories came against ranked schools - then-No. 23 Houston on Sept. 18 and at then-No. 7 Texas the following week. UCLA fell 35-0 to then-No. 25 Stanford on Sept. 11.

It is hard to imagine UCLA playing any worse offensively than it did in the loss to Cal as the Bruins posted only 12 first downs and 144 total yards. They were 3-of-15 on third-down conversion attempts and surrendered five sacks. The ground attack was horrid, generating a paltry 26 yards on 26 attempts. Kevin Prince completed only 13-of-31 passes for 99 yards before exiting the contest with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will be healthy enough to face Oregon.

Cal's game plan was to pound the ball on the ground at UCLA, and the Bruins looked completely helpless for much of the contest. The Golden Bears were able to accumulate 304 rushing yards at a clip of 5.5 yards per carry, and four of the five offensive touchdowns scored by Cal came on the ground. Opponents are generating 25.4 ppg against UCLA, which is allowing almost the same number of rushing yards per game (182.3) as passing yards (187.5). The Bruins have permitted 49 percent of third down conversion attempts by foes, but the team's total of 18 sacks to date is solid.

UCLA is far from an offensive juggernaut, as the club is averaging 22.7 ppg and 318.5 total ypg. The Bruins do almost all of their damage via the ground attack, which accounts for 223.0 ypg thanks to an impressive average of 5.2 yards per carry. Of the 16 touchdowns scored by the offense this season, 13 have come on the ground. Johnathan Franklin has rushed for 679 yards and five touchdowns to lead the way, while Derrick Coleman has been productive as well with four rushing scores.

The Bruins, last in the Pac-10 with 95.5 passing yards and 318.5 total yards of offense per game, might need to rely on sophomore Richard Brehaut if starting quarterback Kevin Prince’s bothersome right knee keeps him out of the lineup. While filling in for an injured Prince earlier this month, Brehaut scored the go-ahead touchdown on a one-yard run in the fourth quarter of a 42-28 victory over Washington State.

The Bruins had to deal with off-field trouble during their time off. Coach Rick Neuheisel has suspended Josh Smith and Morrell Presley for this week’s game due to unspecified violations of team rules. Smith is averaging 27.4 yards on 14 kickoff returns. The junior transfer from Colorado has also rushed for 74 yards on three carries and caught three passes. Presley has started all six games, totaling three receptions. He was also of four UCLA players suspended for one game in 2009.

The off-field difficulty is merely the latest in a recent strong of it for the Bruins. Three freshmen were arrested in June on suspicion of theft from a dorm and dismissed from the program. Offensive tackle Mike Harris ended a streak of 18 consecutive starts when he was suspended for the team’s season opener, also for violating team rules.

In the eyes of many fans and analysts, Oregon tailback LaMichael James is the favorite for the Heisman Trophy at this middle point of the season. James has rushed for 848 yards and nine touchdowns averaging 7.4 yards per carry. While the tremendous performance of James was expected, the play of quarterback Darron Thomas has been a pleasant surprise. Thomas has completed 58.8 percent of his passes for 1,231 yards and 14 touchdowns with five interceptions, and he has rushed for 221 yards and a pair of scores. Jeff Maehl leads Oregon with 31 catches for 423 yards and five touchdowns, helping the Ducks achieve their staggering output of 54.3 ppg and 567.0 total ypg.

Against Washington State, Oregon posted 22 first downs and 556 total yards. James ran for 136 yards and two scores in that game, while Thomas and backup Nate Costa combined for 304 passing yards. Maehl caught 10 passes for 119 yards and a score.

While the Oregon offense gets most of the media attention, the team's defense has certainly help up its end of the bargain. The Ducks are allowing only 16.3 ppg and 338.5 total ypg, and the squad has played well against the run and the pass for the most part. Generating turnovers has been key to the success of the squad, as Oregon has posted 12 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries. Cliff Harris has four interceptions to his credit, while Eddie Pleasant paces Oregon with 33 total tackles.

The Oregon defense didn't play a perfect game by any means against Washington State, as three touchdowns were surrendered, two of which capped drives of at least 70 yards. Still, only 91 rushing yards were permitted at a clip of 2.5 yards per attempt.

UCLA is 4-10 all-time against top-ranked teams, but hasn’t defeated one since the 1976 Rose Bowl against Ohio State. The Bruins have dropped six such matchups since.

*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oregon by 25.7, O/U 57.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oregon -26
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Oregon by 25.2
_______________________________________________

• TOP RATED TRENDS
-------------------------------------
--OREGON is 27-5 (+21.5 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 22.3, OPPONENT 8.3 - (Rating = 4*)

--OREGON is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 30.9, OPPONENT 10.5 - (Rating = 4*)

--OREGON is 26-7 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 38.2, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--OREGON is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 46.6, OPPONENT 25.8 - (Rating = 3*)

--Rick Neuheisel is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of UCLA.
The average score was Neuheisel 18.3, OPPONENT 25.9 - (Rating = 3*)

--OREGON is 20-6 (+13.4 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 22.1, OPPONENT 10 - (Rating = 2*)

• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Any team (OREGON) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game.
(32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (37-4 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 16.9
The average score in these games was: Team 40.7, Opponent 15.9 (Average point differential = +24.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22 (56.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (52-25).

PLAY ON - A home team (OREGON) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game.
(38-14 since 1992.) (73.1%, +22.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (45-6)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 16.9
The average score in these games was: Team 41.9, Opponent 18.7 (Average point differential = +23.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 24 (47.1% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (21-6).

--PLAY ON - A home team (OREGON) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 1.2+ YPP) against an average team (+/- 0.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games.
(47-18 since 1992.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (59-8)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 17.9
The average score in these games was: Team 42.4, Opponent 18.9 (Average point differential = +23.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (46.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-9).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (30-14).

• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Any team against the total (OREGON) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
(23-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.5%, +19.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 64.5
The average score in these games was: Team 43.3, Opponent 30.1 (Total points scored = 73.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 15 (55.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (28-3).

--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (UCLA) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.
(29-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 51.5
The average score in these games was: Team 15.5, Opponent 25.2 (Total points scored = 40.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (57.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-4).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (34-5).

• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF SUPER SITUATIONS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 6 to 11.5 vs. the first half line (OREGON) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, with 9 or more defensive starters returning.
(28-6 since 1992.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10, Opponent 14.5 (Average first half point differential = -4.5)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 10/21 cont.

*** SOUTH FLORIDA @ CINCINNATI
Friday, October 22nd, 8:00 PM ET
==========================
Two teams moving in opposite directions clash at Nippert Stadium as the South Florida Bulls tussle with the Cincinnati Bearcats in Big East play. The Bulls enter the contest in need of a victory, as they have dropped each of their last two outings, both against Big East members. After suffering a surprising 13-9 setback at home to Syracuse, USF was topped 20-6 by nationally-ranked West Virginia last Thursday. The team now sits at an even 3-3 overall and still has a difficult road ahead.

The Bearcats, meanwhile, opened defense of their Big East title with a 35-27 victory over Louisville exactly a week ago. Cincinnati, which has actually captured the last two conference championships, has now won 13 consecutive Big East games dating back to 2008. Overall, the squad has won two in row to pull to a level 3-3 on the year. Cincinnati owns a 5-2 edge in the all-time series with USF and the Bearcats have won the past four meetings, including a 34-17 decision last season.

The offense for USF continues to struggle, as the unit managed only 202 total yards in a loss to WVU last week. QB BJ Daniels is a big reason for this unit's lack of success, as he has yet to prove capable. The versatile gunslinger passed for just 119 yards with three INTs last week, and he has now tossed 10 picks against four TDs on the season. That obviously isn't a good ratio and if Daniels continues to the turn the ball over, don't be surprised to see him replaced. The ground attack has churned out an average of 157.7 ypg to help Daniels, but last week USF managed only 65 rushing yards on 29 carries. Moise Plancher had 63 of those yards on 11 carries, raising his total to a team-high 352 yards for the season.

The defense has clearly been the strength of USF this season and the unit turned in another strong effort last week despite the outcome. The Bulls held WVU's potent attack to just 298 total yards, including only 79 rushing on 33 carries. USF is permitting just 300.5 total ypg, so last week's effort was right in line with what the defense has done all season long. The defense added three sacks to bring its total to 17 for the year, but the unit failed to force WVU into a single turnover and that was a disappointment. Devekeyan Lattimore paced the Bulls with 11 stops and his first sack, and he now ranks second on the team with 30 tackles for the year.

The Bearcats are really finding their rhythm on offense, as they rolled up 453 total yards in a victory over Louisville this past week. QB Zach Collaros threw a career-best five TDs passes, including three to Armon Binns, and he finished with 275 yards and two picks on 18-of-28 pass attempts. It was another strong performance from Collaros, who is one of the top QBs in the league with 17 TDs against just three INTs for the season. Binns, who ended with eight catches for 175 yards, now has 32 receptions for 525 yards and seven scores for the season. DJ Woods is another explosive weapon for the Bearcats and he tops the roster with 550 receiving yards, while ranking second with 31 catches and six TDs. He hauled in a pair of TDs versus Louisville last week, but left with a concussion in the third quarter. He is listed as questionable for this weekend. The ground game was also effective against Louisville, as Isaiah Pead ran for 145 yards on just 21 carries. Pead has now rushed for 547 yards behind an impressive 8.8 yard per carry average, helping the Bearcats to rush for 178.5 ypg as a team.

Cincinnati had one of the top ranked run defenses around heading into last week's matchup, but the unit was gashed for 228 yards and two scores on the ground by Louisville. It was quite a surprising result and despite the numerous yards allowed, the Bearcats are still permitting just 108.7 rushing ypg for the season. The defense gave up another 179 yards through the air to Louisville and failed to force a single turnover. Those are two areas of concern for the Bearcats, who have recorded a mere five takeaways, while surrendering 257.3 passing ypg this season. JK Schaffer has been this unit's top player with 56 stops to his credit and that includes a seven-tackle performance last game.

*STAN'S FORECASTER – Cincinnati by 11.6; O/U 41
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Cincinnati -9
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Cincinnati by 13.7
_________________________________________________

• TOP RATED TRENDS
-------------------------------------
--S FLORIDA is 10-0 against the 1rst half line (+10.0 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 18.6, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 4*)

--S FLORIDA is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 8.4, OPPONENT 13.5 - (Rating = 4*)

--S FLORIDA is 7-22 against the 1rst half line (-17.2 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 6.3, OPPONENT 13.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--CINCINNATI is 10-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.9 Units) when the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 16.9, OPPONENT 7.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--S FLORIDA is 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 16.1, OPPONENT 24.3 - (Rating = 2*)

--CINCINNATI is 19-5 UNDER (+13.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 24.9, OPPONENT 24.0 - (Rating = 2*)

• HIGHEST RATED MONEY LINE SUPER SITUATIONS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - A home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(23-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.2%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +101.3
The average score in these games was: Team 30.2, Opponent 19.8 (Average point differential = +10.5)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2, +10.9 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (32-16, +6.9 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (46-25, +8.1 units).

--PLAY AGAINST - A road team vs. the money line (S FLORIDA) - a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) against an average defensive team (21 to 28 PPG), after scoring 6 points or less last game.
(20-5 since 1992.) (80%, +19 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +120.2
The average score in these games was: Team 29, Opponent 17.7 (Average point differential = +11.3)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1, +2.8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1, +4.8 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3, +4.8 units).

--PLAY ON - A home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games, with 5 defensive starters returning.
(27-7 since 1992.) (79.4%, +20.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +103.3
The average score in these games was: Team 41.4, Opponent 20.7 (Average point differential = +20.7)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2, +4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3, +10 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5, +8.8 units).

• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.
(28-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-19 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.1
The average score in these games was: Team 24.4, Opponent 23.6 (Average point differential = +0.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (50% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (43-21).

--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (CINCINNATI) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.
(37-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.1%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (19-34 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 10.6
The average score in these games was: Team 24.8, Opponent 28 (Average point differential = -3.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 23 (44.2% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-9).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (53-23).
__________________________________________________ _

• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (CINCINNATI) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, in October games.
(34-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 46
The average score in these games was: Team 22.7, Opponent 17.1 (Total points scored = 39.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (48.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (48-31).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (67-47).

--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (S FLORIDA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(36-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 45.8
The average score in these games was: Team 19.4, Opponent 20.3 (Total points scored = 39.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (48.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (57-27).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (67-42).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Yankees Wednesday.

Thursday it's the Phillies. The profit is 405 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

Hondo recovered more dead presidents last night when he rode the Giants to another win over the Phillies that lowered his deficit to 2,570 mccoveys.

Tonight, he's headed for the Frisco Bay one more time -- 10 units on San Fran to rock Doc.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports
537 - 386 run 58 %

Bonus Play 20-6 Bonus Play run Thurs PHILLIES

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Thursday

Caps/Bruins under 6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NHL

Season: 20-20 (.500)

Washington vs. BOSTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
N.Y. Rangers vs. TORONTO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PHILADELPHIA 3, Anaheim 2
DETROIT 3, Calgary 2
MONTREAL 3, New Jersey 2
N.Y. Islanders vs. TAMPA BAY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Dallas vs. FLORIDA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NASHVILLE 3, Pittsburgh 2
San Jose vs. COLORADO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Minnesota vs. EDMONTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PHOENIX 3, Los Angeles 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI CFB

Pacific-10 Conference
OREGON 43, Ucla 22

Southwestern Athletic Conference
ALCORN STATE 28, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 23

 

[mowerfixer1]

Bobby Maxwell
Thursday's winner...
300-Unit College Thursday E-Z Play - UCLA BRUINS

The top team in the country has lost each of the last two weeks with Alabama falling to South Carolina two weeks ago and then Ohio State losing to Wisconsin last weekend. Tonight, Oregon comes in as the No. 1-rated team and the Ducks are laying way too many points against a tough UCLA team. I’ll happily grab all these points and play the Bruins.

It’s the first time in the school’s history that Oregon is on top of the college football standings, and carrying that into a game can be somewhat intimidating.

UCLA has been off since October 9, giving the coaches plenty of time to gameplan for the Ducks. The Bruins had a three-game winning streak snapped by Cal on October 9, with two of those three wins coming against ranked team in Houston and then-No. 7 Texas. Coach Rick Nueheisel knows how to develop a plan, as he showed in Texas when the Bruins completely dominated the Longhorns.

UCLA sophomore Johnathan Franklin is second in the Pac-10 with 113.2 yards rushing per game. The Bruins are committed to the running game and the Ducks have allowed an average of 159.3 yards rushing over their last three games.

Last time these two teams squared off in Oregon was 2008 when the Ducks scored a 31-24 win and came nowhere near covering the 19-point spread, UCLA has cashed in two of the last three years and two of the last three times they’ve met in Oregon.

The road team, and the underdog, is on a 6-2 ATS run in this series and the Bruins come in on further streaks of 23-10 after a straight-up loss and 8-2 the last 10 times they’ve been ‘dogs of 10 ½ points or more. Oregon is on a couple of ugly ATS slides, including 1-4 in Pac-10 action and 0-5 in Thursday night contests.

UCLA needs to play a strong defensive game like they did against the ranked Cougars and Longhorns. Look for them to be in this one through three quarters but let it slip away in the final period. But it won’t slip past a cover. Grab the points and go with the Bruins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Accuscore oregon-ucla game forecast
Thursday October 21, 2010 PTS TO
UCLA 16.9 2.2
Oregon 42.7 2.5

 

[giraffe]

ras

anyone have ras two early selections for saturday, thanks

 

[costa993]

Larry Ness

9* UCLA +24

 

[Wagerwarrior]

These folks have first 50 Unit NHL release going tonight if anyone sees it.They are solid in NHL.

LPW Sports Forecast NHL Toronto Over 5.5 (52-34 Comp Run)